on black swans

I’ve always been fascinated by the people who are certain of the future.

They know which outcome will happen thanks to an action.

I was never like this. In my entire life I always guessed the outcome and even if I was often right I was never one of those people who was sure that their guesses would prove correct every time.

This might be mostly because I was always a possibilist, someone that takes into account that things change, things are unforeseeable, how people react can not be known for certain.

To my knowledge future can always hold for us something we can’t imaging. Both in personal and professional life. Things can go extremely well or wrong depending on topics we didn’t include into our vision.

That’s the main discussion topic around black swan, masterfully described in the book by the same name by Taleb. Amazon was unforeseeable until it happened, same goes with netflix. You might guess some of it, but rarely to which extend that will happen.

That’s the beauty of life, we know just a little and we can’t know it all.

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